Swing-trade backtests

ETF Swing Signals

Firing now

Leaderboard by ETF

top 3 per ETF by expectancy, ≥30 trades

Combinations

AND-combos aggregated across ETFs

Step-out signals

the true opposite of the buy side — measured as the average return of the SHORT
Honest finding: the two sides are not symmetric. Buying deep dips in uptrends averages +10% per trade; selling strength averages ~0% on broad US/global ETFs — overbought conditions usually resolve sideways, not down. The only places sell signals clear the 7% bar are young, hyper-volatile ETFs (3067.HK, 2807.HK). The first table below is the true mirror of the buy leaderboard (avg return of the short, positive = price fell). The second table is the drop-odds lens (probability of a ≥7% dip vs normal) — useful for trimming, weaker for profit.

Step-out warnings firing now

Short-side leaderboard — avg return lens

Drop-odds lens — P(≥7% dip) vs base rate

Methodology & caveats