ETF Swing Signals

Read this first: sell signals are risk-management, not profit engines. Across 54 ETFs the average forward move after every sell signal is still positive (markets drift up), so stepping out usually costs you upside. What these signals DO reliably do is raise the odds of a ≥7% drop. The table shows that probability (P(−7%)) versus each ETF’s base rate — act on signals with big uplift, not on ones that merely sound scary.