Step-out signals
the true opposite of the buy side — measured as the average return of the SHORT
Honest finding: the two sides are not symmetric. Buying deep dips in uptrends
averages +10% per trade; selling strength averages ~0% on broad US/global ETFs — overbought conditions usually resolve
sideways, not down. The only places sell signals clear the 7% bar are young, hyper-volatile ETFs (3067.HK, 2807.HK).
The first table below is the true mirror of the buy leaderboard (avg return of the short, positive = price fell).
The second table is the drop-odds lens (probability of a ≥7% dip vs normal) — useful for trimming, weaker for profit.
Step-out warnings firing now
Short-side leaderboard — avg return lens
Drop-odds lens — P(≥7% dip) vs base rate